近30年来，随着我国西部大开发战略和西电东送战略的实施，二滩、拉西瓦、构皮滩、小湾、溪洛渡、锦屏一级、大岗山、白鹤滩、乌东德等多座超过200m甚至达到300m级的特高拱坝的成功建成，标志着我国特高拱坝建设水平已居世界领先地位。这些工程在国家能源供应安全保障中占有重要地位，发挥了巨大的社会经济效益。但由于工程坝址地质条件极其复杂，工程安全常受到高水推力、高边坡、高地应力等特殊环境的制约，其设计、施工及安全监控等技术指标已经突破了现行规范的适用范围和标准，给工程建设和运行等带来了诸多难题。
图 1 我国特高拱坝建设发展历程
近年来，河海大学水工程安全智能诊断科研团队围绕特高拱坝安全监控，开展了特高拱坝运行性态时空分析方法研究，建立了特高拱坝运行性态安全监控模型，拟定了特高拱坝运行性态预警阈值。取得的一系列创新性研究成果为掌握特高拱坝工作性态、保障工程效益充分发挥提供了强有力的技术支持。
图2 小湾特高拱坝利用拱梁分载法、数值模拟、模型试验和原型监测获得的拱冠梁变形
图3 我国典型特高拱坝变形挠曲线分布
图4 锦屏一级特高拱坝变形聚类分区和时空面板模型分量分布
图5 典型特高拱坝运行性态时空预警椭圆控制限
最新研究成果发表在Engineering Structures、Structural Control and Health Monitoring、Construction and Building Materials、Engineering Failure Analysis、Structures、Water Science and Engineering等期刊上，出版了《特高拱坝变形安全监控理论和方法及其应用》、《特高拱坝安全监控分析》、《混凝土坝运行性态诊断与控制》等专著。
相关论文信息：
[1]Erfeng, Z., Chengqing, W, Shaowei, W., et al. Seepage dissolution effect prediction on aging deformation of concrete dams by coupled chemo-mechanical model. Construction and Building Materials, 2020. Doi:10.1016/j.conbuildmat.2019.117603
[2]Erfeng, Z., Chengqing, W. Unified egg ellipse critical threshold estimation for the deformation behavior of ultrahigh arch dams. Engineering Structures, 2020. Doi: 10.1016/j.engstruct.2020.110598
[3]Erfeng, Z., Chengqing, W. Centroid deformation-based nonlinear safety monitoring model for arch dam performance evaluation. Engineering Structures, 2021. Doi: 10.1016/j.engstruct.2021.112652
[4]Erfeng, Z., Chengqing, W. Long-term safety assessment of large-scale arch dam based on non-probabilistic reliability analysis. Structures, 2021. Doi: 10.1016/j.istruc.2021.03.012
[5]Erfeng, Z., Chengqing, W. Risk probabilistic assessment of ultrahigh arch dams through regression panel modeling on deformation behavior. Structural Control and Health Monitoring, 2021. Doi: 10.1002/stc.2716
[6]Erfeng, Z., Bo, L., Hao, C., et al. Deformation critical threshold estimation of Xiaowan ultrahigh arch dam with time-varying grey model. Water Science and Engineering, 2023. Doi: 10.1016/j.wse.2023.07.001
[7]Erfeng, Z., Yi, L., Jingmei, Z., et a;. Interval prediction model of deformation behavior for dam safety during long term operation using Bootstrap-GBDT. Structural Control and Health Monitoring, 2023. Doi: 10.1155/2023/6929861
[8]Chenfei, S., Erfeng, Z., Yanxin, X., et al. Genesis analysis of special deformation characteristics for super-high arch dams in the alpine and gorge regions of southwest China. Mathematics, 2023. Doi: 10.3390/math11071753
[9]Erfeng, Z., Xin, L., Chongshi, G. Health diagnosis of ultrahigh arch dam performance using heterogeneous spatial panel vector model, 2024. Doi: 10.1016/j.wse.2024.02.003
[10]Yi, L., Erfeng, Z., Jingmei, Z.. Hybrid reliability evaluation of arch dam during long-term service with multi-dimensional parallelepiped convex model. Engineering Failure Analysis, 2024. Doi: 10.1016/j.engfailanal.2023.107937
